THE HORMUZ SHUTDOWN SO FAR: THE DETAILS

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage transporting about 20% of the world’s oil, has been effectively closed for 100+ days. This closure commenced on February 28, 2026, after coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran. 

Map of the Strait of Hormuz
www.bloomberg.com

On June 11, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officially declared the strait closed to all vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships, warning that any vessel attempting passage would be targeted. While the U.S. Central Command contests this claim and asserts naval-coordinated commercial transit continues, tanker traffic remains approximately 95% below the pre-conflict average of 94 daily transits, with some days seeing as few as two.

The disruption’s severity is rooted in the strait’s geography. At its narrowest, the waterway spans only 21 miles, with shipping lanes occupying about 2 miles on each side. Under normal conditions, nearly 20 million barrels of oil flow daily through these lanes, accounting for nearly one-fifth of global oil consumption and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas shipments. No alternative routes currently exist with sufficient capacity to absorb this volume.

Commercially, the impact has been profound. By early May, over 1,550 commercial vessels carrying around 22,500 mariners remained stranded in the Gulf following the withdrawal of protection and indemnity insurance in early March. Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd, have entirely suspended operations through the strait.

Market reactions have notably exceeded the actual supply disruption. Despite a roughly 8% decrease in global oil production in March 2026, prices surged by about 60% during the same period, over seven times the scale of the production drop. This discrepancy underscores how oil prices are driven more by anticipated risks than by actual supply shortages.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, has warned that recovery will be gradual. In an interview on PBS NewsHour, he estimated that reinstating 80% of previous trade flows could take up to six months following reopening, due to the logistical challenges of repositioning stranded tankers and deploying replacements. He described this event as the most significant energy disruption in history, with cumulative losses exceeding 1.2 billion barrels. Asia, which receives about 80% of the oil and 90% of the LNG transiting the strait, remains the most exposed region.

Ghana, which imports nearly 70% of its refined petroleum despite domestic crude production, has felt the impact directly. Brent crude prices have exceeded 100 dollars per barrel, surpassing the 75-dollar benchmark set in the 2026 national budget by over 30%, according to Energygh and Ghanaian financial media. This has driven petrol prices to approximately GH₵13.25 per litre, inclusive of the Energy Sector Shortfall Levy, Road Fund Levy, and Special Petroleum Tax, before factoring in global crude adjustments. Analysts in Ghana highlight the nation’s vulnerability due to its reliance on imported refined products, which causes domestic fuel prices to react quickly to global supply shocks.

The World Bank had projected in late April that the most acute phase of the disruption would end by May, with gradual normalisation of shipping through Hormuz by late 2026 and Brent crude averaging around 86 for the year, up from 69 in 2025. This forecast has yet to materialise. The strait remains closed by Iran’s declaration and contested by U.S. forces. The duration of this standoff will critically influence global oil prices and how long Ghanaian consumers continue to face elevated fuel costs.

Sources: CSIS, Al Jazeera, CNN Business, PBS NewsHour, Bloomberg, CNBC, UNCTAD, World Bank, IEA, ModernGhana/Energygh, global-energy-flow.com 

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Kimathi Charles Sakyi. Researcher, Black Gold Bulletin