THE SIXTH YEAR OF DECLINE: HAS GHANA'S OIL ALREADY PEAKED?

Over six years, Ghana’s oil production has dropped dramatically, from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.3 million in 2025. PIAC's 2025 Annual Report presents more than just numbers; it delivers a sobering verdict on the future of Ghana’s petroleum era. 

Source: caspianbarrel.org

The word "sixth" carries weight here. This is not a first warning or a temporary dip. After six straight years of declining output, the pattern is no longer a caution; it’s reality. Ghana’s crude oil production in 2025 was less than half its 2019 peak. The Public Interest and Accountability Committee confirmed this in its 2025 report, launched in Accra on April 8, 2026, revealing what many had long suspected: the oil fields have peaked, and Ghana is now facing decline.

PIAC Chairman Richard Ellimah put it clearly: “Production has fallen from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.3 million barrels in 2025, a compounded annual decline of 9%. This confirms the common view that Ghana’s oil fields have peaked and are on a downward path.”

Decline Across All Fields

The Jubilee Field, Ghana’s flagship offshore development since 2010, saw the steepest decline in 2025. It produced 22.21 million barrels, averaging 63,280 barrels per day, a 30.3% drop year on year. A 15-day planned maintenance shutdown explained part of the decline, but the main cause is the reservoir's ageing and loss of pressure.

The TEN Field (Tweneboa, Enyenra, Ntomme) produced 5.83 million barrels, down 14%. More concerning than volume is the fact that 81% of raw gas at TEN is being reinjected into the wells to maintain pressure, reflecting complex geological challenges. TEN’s production has fallen from over 40,000 barrels per day in 2017 to about 16,000 in 2025.

The Sankofa Gye Nyame Field held up best, with a relatively small 3.6% decline, producing 9.26 million barrels, though its trend is also downward.

The True Cost of Peaking

The revenue impact in 2025 was harsh. Total petroleum receipts fell by 43.27%, from $1.36 billion in 2024 to $770.27 million. Revenues from crude oil lifting dropped by over 50%. Ghana produced only 80% of its projected 46.35 million barrels for 2025.

No new Petroleum Agreements have been signed since 2018, meaning Ghana has gone seven years without new commercial upstream discoveries. PIAC member Samuel Bekoe pointed to several reasons for this investment drought:

• Limited exploration data available to investors
• Small offshore block sizes
• Growing global demand for renewables

Is There a Way Forward?

There are some hopeful signs. A Memorandum of Understanding between the government and Jubilee and TEN partners commits up to $2 billion in new investment, targeting at least 10 new wells. Parliament ratified a new petroleum agreement with Tristar Upstream Oil and Gas for the GH WB 01 block in November 2025. The Eban and Akoma discoveries in Cape Three Points Block 4 were declared commercial in July 2025. The Voltaian Basin, Ghana’s long-discussed onshore frontier, aims to start its first drilling campaign in the third quarter of 2026.

However, PIAC’s verdict is sobering: these developments are still years away from producing any oil. The current fields keeping Ghana’s petroleum sector alive are mature, increasingly expensive to operate, and producing at rates unimaginable during the country’s early oil optimism in 2010.

Whether Ghana manages a thoughtful transition into a post-peak future or lets the decline accelerate depends mostly on decisions made now, not on waiting for the next field to come online.

Sources: PIAC 2025 Annual Report; MyJoyOnline; Citi Newsroom; Ghana Business News; Ghana Eye Report; GBC Ghana Online

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Kimathi Charles Sakyi. Researcher, Black Gold Bulletin